Raila vs. Raila
I read Kwendo Opanga’s piece of Sunday Nation piece of 18.10.2020 and thought to share my thoughts.
It is a well-intentioned and highly diplomatic piece, but it is fundamentally flawed philosophically — specifically in terms of Political Philosophy.
Democracy being premised on purely consolidating a majority in a chamber that is devoid of a message but is underpinned by the divisive values of individualism (Individual Freedom) and the materialism of Capitalism (Freedom of Ownership), inevitably makes it about what current Deputy President William Samoei Ruto once perfectly described as “…creating coalitions of hatred”. (Either Gitau Warigi or Macharia Gaitho quoted him from a private conversation they had on a plane, but I can no longer find).
That is why in every Democracy as elections draw near, an aspirant must find a bogeyman for the public mind. The Democrats have it in Trump, the Republicans have it in Clinton, the Blacks, Communism, George Bush had Saddam Hussein, Barrack Obama had Osama bin Laden on and on.
Therefore in Mr. Kwendo Opanga’s call for unity, if he wants other leaders to be included in the Building Bridges Initiative he must provide a bogeyman the “inclusive union” that will have been created can rally the masses against.
Bringing the “coalition of hatred” home, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto united against a Raila Odinga bogeyman, now Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga are uniting against a William Ruto bogeyman. Therefore if Mr. Kwendo Opanga wants Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga and William Ruto to unite under a Democratic regime, he MUST provide a proportionate bogeyman. Outside of this, he can only unite them under a different political system, not Democracy, for like William Ruto correctly stated “Democracy is about building coalitions of hatred”. The strongest coalition of hatred captures the throne.
That is one.
Two, Mr. Kwendo Opanga’s conclusion that Raila Odinga is a current favourite contradicts the current political reality and probably will also not stand the test of time as Raila Odinga once again places himself on the wrong side of history. And it is this assertion that we will look at most deeply, for Raila Odinga’s journey, for better fore worse, is all our journeys. None of us have escaped its consequences, good or bad.
I will begin by submitting William Ruto is proving deadly primarily because has as copied and executed all of Raila’s best moves without making the critical and self-defeating errors Raila Odinga made when he just like William Ruto, was last just a few feet away from the throne as Prime Minister.
Let us look back.
In 2002 Raila Odinga in a remarkable turn of events declared “Kibaki Tosha!” and became the darling of ALL the native tribes including Kikuyus.
In 2007, then President Emilio Mwai Kibaki reneged on the now infamous Memorandum of Understanding he had with Raila Odinga, re-opening an age old wound Kikuyu tribal elites had inflicted on inter Luo-Kikuyu tribal relations during the reign of the first President Jomo Kenyatta.
Then Prime Minister Raila Odinga made a critical choice, instead of gunning for the Kikuyu base after being betrayed by Kikuyu elites like William Ruto has currently done, he was overcome by his old belief that “Kikuyus can never vote for anyone but a Kikuyu” or the Luo flavoured version of the same belief “Kikuyus can never vote for a Luo”. He instead built what he believed was an unbeatable “41 against 1” coalition of hatred.
For this he organized an alliance of Tribal Chiefs, then famously known as the “Pentagon”.
IMPORTANT NOTE: William Ruto has now been betrayed by the Kikuyu comprador elites, who many do not understand have evolved to be a distinct and separate group from the Kikuyu natives. But William Ruto has responded by going direct to the Kikuyu base, instead of presuming rejection by the Kikuyu tribe’s elites implies rejection by the Kikuyu tribe.
The Kikuyu base remained silent after the President Mwai Kibaki’s treachery. As “silence is consent” in politics, it was assumed the entire tribe endorsed the betrayal of the MoU. A simple unscientific survey would have revealed that the base was bitter that President Mwai Kibaki betrayed Raila Odinga, (who by now was famously called Njamba amongst the Kikuyu for saving them from the tyranny of Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi). But the Kiambaa killings forced the Kikuyu to rally behind the treacherous leadership as any existential crisis always does for incumbent leadership.
The 2008 Post-Election Violence caused by the betrayal of the MoU resulted in the Coalition Government so-called “Nusu Mkate”. Raila Odinga became Prime Minister.
Again here Raila Odinga mades critical choices, instead of seizing the Government of Kenya and running it like William Ruto did as Deputy President, he famously complained about perks at political rallies. Instead of plotting a Palace coup from within he is frolicking around the country and the world, while President Mwai Kibaki ran the government as he willed.
I explained it in my piece for The Nairobi Law Monthly “January 30th: Mock treason, failed coup or real revolution”, speculating that thought Raila Odinga is a brilliant mobilizer and populist, he does not seem to understand “The nature or substance of Power”.
Being Prime Minister was his chance to pull the “Mnangagwa” he in 2017 public speeches later threatened to, in other words a Palace coup.
2012. The ICC indictments of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto are confirmed.
Here again Raila Odinga make watershed choices, instead of standing with his General and key pillar in the Pentagon, he famously says “…everyone should carry their own cross…”.
This was by far his biggest and most fatal strategic error. In that moment Raila Odinga lost the entire Rift Valley but blinded by success he assumes the millions who showed up at the ballot for his ”coalition of hatred — the Pentagon” were as a result of his individual star-power, famously boasting “The people of Rift Valley elected me because of my own appeal, they did not elect me because of Ruto”.
2013. Raila Odinga loses the Election. Again.
William Ruto moves with the Rift Valley to the centre, ruthlessly correcting Raila Odinga’s delusions of populist grandeur.
By this time, anyone who has been keeping track knows Raila Odinga has fatal personality weaknesses.
People who worked in his campaign secretariat in 2007 revealed after the election that it was pure chaos, just Dr. Duncan Ojwang revealed in an interview with Youtube Talkshow host Gerald Bitok, that went viral. Raila’s political parties have card-board structures, he decides everything, on a whim. This is while reports have it that his opponent Uhuru Kenyatta listens to and obeys the experts during campaigns. His now former partner William Ruto needs no mention, his discipline is famous.
Miguna Miguna’s book comes out and confirms all of the above. Miguna Miguna reveals they tried extremely hard to help Raila Odinga run the government when he was Prime Minister but it proved an impossible task.
Raila Odinga is not an Administrator by nature. So what?
This is not the problem, the problem is he does not let his experts do their thing, he must be the master of everything. With this in mind, let us look at 2017.
2017. Raila Odinga loses the Election. Again.
Raila Odinga’s “Election Monitoring infrastructure in the cloud” failed to deliver. His secretariat was a mess. In Kisumu his base, young people preferred to work as Election monitors for his competitor Jubilee than for Orange Democratic Movement because Jubilee Party was paying more and consistently.
But let’s for the sake of argument assume this is not important…
Here again Raila Odinga makes a critical error, during the campaign he is captured on video in Masai land saying “..that all the visitors (Kikuyus automatically assume he is referring to them) must leave”. Word spreads through the Kikuyu tribe like wildfire triggering the now famous “kumira kumira”. Kikuyus come out for the election in numbers that break Tom Wolfe’s statistical prediction tools at opinion pollster IPSOS synovate. This is to make sure their candidate wins guaranteeing the safety of their kin outside the Mt. Kenya region and their property is elsewhere.
He shoots himself in the foot. Again.
That is water now water under the bridge.
2018 — The Handshake.
While most of us thought Raila Odinga initiated it, Economist Dr. David Ndii revealed it was actually Uhuru Kenyatta who initiated it. It then became the now famous Building-Bridges-Initiative shortened to BBI.
So as 2022 approaches, Raila Odinga has the the state infrastructure but he has lost two key grounds, Mt. Kenya & Rift Valley. I submitted in my piece above, the past few elections have shown:
1. If you have Mt. Kenya (in toto) and RV (in toto) you cannot be beaten.
2. If you do not have 1, then you need to have one of the two above, the rest of the country and split the other, so for instance if you have RV and the rest of the country and split Mt. Kenya like Moi, you are good. If you have Mt. Kenya and the rest of the country, split Rift Valley like Mwai Kibaki, you are good.
Raila Odinga though in the centre with Jubilee right now, does not have Mt. Kenya and does not have Rift Valley, even if he has the rest of the country and government infrastructure, he cannot win. He will be like Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi in 2002, who had the Rift Valley and state infrastructure, but had lost the rest of the country. He lost.
Kenya’s political medium has evolved. In spite of the undeniable power that resides in Government infrastructure, its writ is not absolute. Any aspirant would be unwise to depend on it alone.
Moving forward, in Dr. Ndii’s words, the Kenya marriage has failed. Different from Dr. David Ndii I hold that Kenya’s marriage was not a marriage between tribes, it was an abusive marriage between Malcolm X’s famous House Negro, the ruling elite that inherited power from the colonialists, and the Field Slave, the natives, where the master remains Her Imperial Majesty.
The abuse in the marriage has now become untenable.
The house negro has mortgaged the field slaves, their families and all their personal possessions now and for coming generations. He has spared no resource in brutalising and expropriating the field slaves; policy, police, bulldozers, and William Ruto will comfortably be able to hang this albatross on Raila Odinga’s neck.
If Ruto is able to forge the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance into a turbine and then successfully house them in a class structure, Raila Odinga is facing a potential political tsunami, where we are facing a certain debt tsunami. Like the rest of us “field slaves” he can only escape the certain destruction he once predicted for others, through a radical change in strategy. A change so radical, it risks destroying him.
Otherwise he just like us, the natives, is trapped. He has no escape from further failure, despondency and impotence; just as we have no escape from further tyranny, extortion and expropriation.
Raila Odinga like many great men of the past, is his own worst enemy.
No-one has ever beaten Raila Odinga, except Raila Odinga.
